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Patronato vs FBC Melgar — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Patronato
Patronato
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
M. Levato 86'
J. Esquivel 70', 4'
S. Ojeda 59'
T. Martínez 53'
5/4/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Patronato53%
×Draw23%
FBC Melgar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patronato
1.88
FBC Melgar
1.20

Patronato creates 57% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Patronato
1.67
FBC Melgar
0.73

allows per match

Patronato
1.67
FBC Melgar
2.09

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Patronato or draw
76%
Patronato or FBC Melgar
77%
Draw or FBC Melgar
47%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+
30%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals
85%
Patronato 2+ goals
56%
Patronato 3+ goals
29%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
70%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
34%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)
69%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.67 + FBC Melgar defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88

FBC Melgar attack 0.73 + Patronato defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Patronato scores more
53%
level
23%
FBC Melgar scores more
24%

Patronato at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. EsquivelPatronatoPatronato · M
8.3

Match Events

4'
J. Esquivel
28'
S. Cavero← P. Reyna
32'
Sebastian Cavero
41'
Horacio Orzan
43'
Juan Cruz Esquivel
53'
T. Martínez↳ C. Bordacahar
59'
S. Ojeda↳ L. Geminiani
61'
I. Russo← D. Arce
61'
J. Archimbaud← A. Arias
62'
P. Magnín← P. Ibáñez
67'
Lautaro Geminiani
68'
F. Vázquez← N. Solís
70'
J. Esquivel↳ I. Russo
79'
L. Kruspzky← F. Cobos
79'
E. Díaz← J. Esquivel
79'
K. González← J. Valdez
83'
K. Cabrera← L. Iberico
86'
M. Levato
90+4'
Leonel Galeano
90+2'
Alec Deneumostier

Possession

38%Patronato

Shots

9Patronato

Pass accuracy

47%Patronato

Statistics

PatronatoFBC
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots3
2Corners1
14Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots3
5On Target2
3Off Target1
1Blocked0
6Inside Box2
3Outside Box1
Passing
38%Possession62%
297Total Passes496
204Accurate Passes387
69%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
2Yellow Cards4
6Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Patronato 4–1 FBC Melgar

Patronato beat FBC Melgar 4-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 4, 2023.

Goals: J. Esquivel (4', 70'), T. Martínez (53'), S. Ojeda (59'), M. Levato (86').

FBC Melgar controlled possession (62%) and registered 3 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.