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FBC Melgar vs Patronato — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Patronato
Patronato
J. D´Arrigo 58'
B. Cuesta 41', 8' (pen)
T. Martínez 22' (pen)
C. Bordacahar 13'
6/7/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FBC Melgar63%
×Draw24%
Patronato13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.60
Patronato
0.57

FBC Melgar creates 181% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.20
Patronato
0.33

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.80
Patronato
2.00

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Patronato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
87%
FBC Melgar or Patronato
76%
Draw or Patronato
37%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
35%
Patronato wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
80%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
47%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
22%
Patronato 1+ goals
43%
Patronato 2+ goals
11%
Patronato 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
83%
Patronato (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.20 + Patronato defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Patronato attack 0.33 + FBC Melgar defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
63%
level
24%
Patronato scores more
13%

FBC Melgar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
B. CuestaFBC MelgarFBC Melgar · F
9.3

Match Events

7'
Lautaro Geminiani
8'
B. CuestaPenalty
13'
C. Bordacahar
20'
Cristian González
22'
T. MartínezPenalty
26'
Nicolás Domingo
27'
Alexander Sebastián Sosa
34'
J. Esquivel← B. Nievas
38'
A. Arias← T. Martínez
41'
B. Cuesta↳ K. Cabrera
43'
Alexis Arias
46'
F. Cobos← J. Ghiraldello
58'
J. D´Arrigo↳ B. Cuesta
60'
Fabio Vazquez
63'
S. Malimberni← A. Sosa
63'
K. González← E. Díaz
67'
A. Ramos← C. Bordacahar
68'
Bernardo Cuesta
68'
C. Aguinaga← K. Cabrera
82'
B. Portugal← H. Orzán
82'
L. Iberico← B. Cuesta
85'
N. Solís← F. Vázquez

Possession

59%FBC

Shots

19FBC

Pass accuracy

52%FBC

Statistics

FBCPatronato
Overview
59%Possession41%
19Total Shots10
5Corners4
12Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots10
11On Target2
7Off Target5
1Blocked3
12Inside Box3
7Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
537Total Passes369
459Accurate Passes289
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards5
3Offsides2

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Patronato

FBC Melgar beat Patronato 5-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on June 7, 2023.

Goals: B. Cuesta (8' pen, 41'), C. Bordacahar (13'), T. Martínez (22' pen), J. D´Arrigo (58').

FBC Melgar controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.