Patronato 1–2 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

M. Levato 2'

D. Pabón 79', 77' (pen)

4/5/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Patronato47%

×Draw25%

Atletico Nacional28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.18

Patronato

1.61

Atletico Nacional

1.18

Patronato creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

1.67

creates per match

0.69

1.67

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Patronato

1.67

Atletico Nacional

0.69

allows per match

Patronato

1.67

Atletico Nacional

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

72%

Patronato or Atletico Nacional

75%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

53%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

24%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

80%

Patronato 2+ goals

48%

Patronato 3+ goals

22%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.67 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atletico Nacional attack 0.69 + Patronato defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Patronato scores more

47%

level

25%

Atletico Nacional scores more

28%

Patronato at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Pabón

Atletico Nacional · F

8.5

Match Events

2'

M. Levato↳ M. Ruíz Díaz

14'

23'

45'

46'

46'

Y. Candelo← N. Palacio

46'

A. Salazar← D. Banguero

46'

É. Ocampo← A. Román

52'

Sebastian Gomez

63'

L. Kruspzky← F. Cobos

68'

Cristián Zapata

71'

J. Torres← Jader

71'

Jefferson Duque← T. Ángel

75'

Matías Ruiz Díaz

77'

B. Nievas← F. Vázquez

77'

D. PabónPenalty

78'

N. Solís← J. Esquivel

79'

D. Pabón

83'

A. Sosa← M. Ruíz Díaz

90+5'

Alexander Sebastián Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatronatoAtletico

Overview

29%Possession71%

12Total Shots11

2Corners1

16Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target6

4Off Target5

3Blocked0

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

239Total Passes606

136Accurate Passes487

57%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Patronato 1–2 Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional beat Patronato 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 5, 2023.

Goals: M. Levato (2'), D. Pabón (77' pen, 79').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (71%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Patronato vs Atletico Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Patronato 1–2 Atletico Nacional