Atletico Nacional 0–1 Patronato: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Patronato

C. González 81'

6/28/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Nacional67%

×Draw22%

Patronato12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchPatronato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.60

Atletico Nacional

1.81

Patronato

0.60

Atletico Nacional creates 202% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

1.63

creates per match

0.33

0.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Patronato

0.33

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

Patronato

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Patronato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

88%

Atletico Nacional or Patronato

78%

Draw or Patronato

33%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

40%

Patronato wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

84%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

54%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

27%

Patronato 1+ goals

45%

Patronato 2+ goals

12%

Patronato 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

85%

Patronato (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + Patronato defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Patronato attack 0.33 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

67%

level

22%

Patronato scores more

12%

Atletico Nacional at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Salvá

Patronato · G

7.9

Match Events

11'

L. Kruspzky

31'

N. Solis

34'

J. Asprilla Moreno

46'

J. Barinaga← L. Kruspzky

46'

V. Pereyra← D. Arce

53'

J. Duque

63'

T. Ángel← J. Asprilla

63'

K. González← J. Esquivel

64'

Y. Mena← B. Palacios

68'

G. Novero← F. Vázquez

70'

Ó. Perea← Jader

70'

Á. Angulo← A. Salazar

71'

E. Diaz

80'

Y. Góez← Jhon Duque

81'

C. González↳ N. Solís

84'

M. Ruiz

87'

M. Aruga← M. Ruíz Díaz

88'

E. Ocampo

90+2'

M. Aruga

90+3'

L. Geminiani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoPatronato

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots8

6Corners2

23Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots8

6On Target5

6Off Target3

6Blocked0

9Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

466Total Passes289

397Accurate Passes210

85%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

23Fouls11

3Yellow Cards6

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Patronato

Patronato beat Atletico Nacional 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on June 28, 2023.

Goals: C. González (81').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Patronato — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Patronato