Patro Eisden vs Heist — League #487 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Patro Eisden34%
Heist36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 7 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Patro Eisden ↓
Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Patro Eisden at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches
Heist away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Patro Eisden attack 1.29 + Heist defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02
Heist attack 1.00 + Patro Eisden defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Heist at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Heist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Sporting Hasselt
Stockay-Warfusée
Excelsior Virton
Albert Quévy-Mons
Union Saint-Gilloise II
Sporting Charleroi II
Tubize
Thes Sport
Rochefort
Meux
Spouwen-Mopertingen
Habay-la-Neuve
Crossing Schaerbeek
Union Namur
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
Dessel Sport
Cercle Brugge II
Standard Liège II
Zelzate
Merelbeke
Hoogstraten
Roeselare Daisel
Ninove
Diegem Sport
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
Knokke
Houtvenne
TienenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Patro Eisden host Heist on Saturday, 19 February 2022 at 19:00. The match is part of the League #487 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Patro Eisden vs Heist
Patro Eisden and Heist drew 0-0 in League #487 on February 19, 2022.
The match was played at Patro Stadion in Maasmechelen.