Heist 1–1 Patro Eisden: Result & Stats

Heist

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Patro Eisden

N. Orye 84'

R. Ferber 59'

4/15/2023

League #487 · Round 33Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Heist31%

×Draw33%

Patro Eisden36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeistExpected goals in this matchPatro Eisden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.92

Heist

0.83

Patro Eisden

0.92

Patro Eisden creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.33

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Heist

0.33

Patro Eisden

0.83

allows per match

Heist

1.00

Patro Eisden

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heist+0.00on par

Patro Eisden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heist ↓

Patro Eisden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Heist or draw

64%

Heist or Patro Eisden

67%

Draw or Patro Eisden

69%

Winning margin

Heist wins by 2+

10%

Patro Eisden wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Heist 1+ goals

56%

Heist 2+ goals

20%

Heist 3+ goals

5%

Patro Eisden 1+ goals

60%

Patro Eisden 2+ goals

23%

Patro Eisden 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Heist (draw refunded)

46%

Patro Eisden (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heist at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Patro Eisden away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heist attack 0.33 + Patro Eisden defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Patro Eisden attack 0.83 + Heist defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Heist scores more

31%

level

33%

Patro Eisden scores more

36%

Patro Eisden at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Patro Eisden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

R. Ferber

65'

R. Benhamou← J. Absisan

65'

G. Diedhiou← F. El Attabi

70'

S. Bammens← T. Pietermaat

76'

J. Colman← M. Troonbeeckx

84'

N. Verburgh← R. Ferber

84'

N. Orye

Heist

Patro

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Christiaens

65'▲R. Benhamou←▼J. Absisan

65'▲G. Diedhiou←▼F. El Attabi

76'▲J. Colman←▼M. Troonbeeckx

Heist substitutes

BenhamouDiedhiouColman

Manager: S. Stijnen

70'▲S. Bammens←▼T. Pietermaat

84'▲N. Verburgh←▼R. Ferber

Patro Eisden substitutes

BammensVerburgh