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Patriotas vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Patriotas
Patriotas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
America de Cali
America de Cali
8/4/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 4Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Patriotas40%
×Draw29%
America de Cali31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas
1.16
America de Cali
0.99

Patriotas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 191 away

creates per match

Patriotas
1.06
America de Cali
1.04

allows per match

Patriotas
0.93
America de Cali
1.26

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw
69%
Patriotas or America de Cali
71%
Draw or America de Cali
60%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+
17%
America de Cali wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals
69%
Patriotas 2+ goals
32%
Patriotas 3+ goals
11%
America de Cali 1+ goals
63%
America de Cali 2+ goals
26%
America de Cali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)
56%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.93 · 109 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.06 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Patriotas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Patriotas scores more
40%
level
29%
America de Cali scores more
31%

Patriotas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Patriotas 1–1 America de Cali

Patriotas and America de Cali drew 1-1 in Primera A on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.