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America de Cali vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
8/21/2021Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

America de Cali57%
×Draw25%
Patriotas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.56
Patriotas
0.73

America de Cali creates 114% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 109 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

America de Cali
0.77
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
83%
America de Cali or Patriotas
75%
Draw or Patriotas
43%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
30%
Patriotas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
79%
America de Cali 2+ goals
46%
America de Cali 3+ goals
21%
Patriotas 1+ goals
52%
Patriotas 2+ goals
17%
Patriotas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
77%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Patriotas attack 0.70 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

America de Cali scores more
57%
level
25%
Patriotas scores more
17%

America de Cali at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: America de Cali 0–0 Patriotas

America de Cali and Patriotas drew 0-0 in Primera A on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.