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Paterna vs Eldense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Paterna
Paterna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Eldense
Eldense
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Estadio Municipal Gerardo Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Paterna33%
×Draw28%
Eldense38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paterna
1.10
Eldense
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Paterna
1.07
Eldense
1.19

allows per match

Paterna
1.21
Eldense
1.12

finishing

Paterna+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paterna ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paterna or draw
62%
Paterna or Eldense
72%
Draw or Eldense
67%

Winning margin

Paterna wins by 2+
13%
Eldense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Paterna 1+ goals
67%
Paterna 2+ goals
30%
Paterna 3+ goals
10%
Eldense 1+ goals
70%
Eldense 2+ goals
34%
Eldense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paterna (draw refunded)
47%
Eldense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paterna at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Eldense away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paterna attack 1.07 + Eldense defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Eldense attack 1.19 + Paterna defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paterna scores more
33%
level
28%
Eldense scores more
38%

Eldense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Paterna 1–1 Eldense

Paterna and Eldense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Gerardo Salvador in Paterna.