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Eldense vs Paterna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Eldense
Eldense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Paterna
Paterna
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eldense54%
×Draw28%
Paterna18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.36
Paterna
0.64

Eldense creates 113% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.46
Paterna
0.78

allows per match

Eldense
0.50
Paterna
1.26

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Paterna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Paterna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
82%
Eldense or Paterna
72%
Draw or Paterna
46%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
27%
Paterna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
74%
Eldense 2+ goals
39%
Eldense 3+ goals
16%
Paterna 1+ goals
47%
Paterna 2+ goals
14%
Paterna 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
76%
Paterna (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Paterna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.46 + Paterna defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Paterna attack 0.78 + Eldense defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eldense scores more
54%
level
28%
Paterna scores more
18%

Eldense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Eldense 2–1 Paterna

Eldense beat Paterna 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.