Pastoreo 2–1 Guaraní de Fram: Result & Stats

Pastoreo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guaraní de Fram

P. Candia 65'

M. Adorno 35'

F. Viveros 67'

7/27/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pastoreo44%

×Draw28%

Guaraní de Fram28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PastoreoExpected goals in this matchGuaraní de Fram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.97

Pastoreo

1.30

Guaraní de Fram

0.97

Pastoreo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.07

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Pastoreo

1.13

Guaraní de Fram

0.87

allows per match

Pastoreo

1.07

Guaraní de Fram

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pastoreo ↓

Guaraní de Fram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pastoreo or draw

72%

Pastoreo or Guaraní de Fram

72%

Draw or Guaraní de Fram

56%

Winning margin

Pastoreo wins by 2+

20%

Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pastoreo 1+ goals

73%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

37%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

14%

Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals

62%

Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals

25%

Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

61%

Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pastoreo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

Guaraní de Fram away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pastoreo attack 1.13 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guaraní de Fram attack 0.87 + Pastoreo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pastoreo scores more

44%

level

28%

Guaraní de Fram scores more

28%

Pastoreo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Adorno

45+2'

R. Vera

65'

P. Candia

67'

F. Viveros

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff