Guaraní de Fram 3–3 Pastoreo: Result & Stats

Guaraní de Fram

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Pastoreo

D. Benítez 35'

A. Morel 24'

H. Ojeda 17'

A. López 90+5'

D. Ferreira 63'

R. Borja 57'

4/21/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guaraní de Fram34%

×Draw25%

Pastoreo41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guaraní de FramExpected goals in this matchPastoreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.52

Guaraní de Fram

1.37

Pastoreo

1.52

Pastoreo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.47

creates per match

1.25

1.80

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Guaraní de Fram

1.47

Pastoreo

1.25

allows per match

Guaraní de Fram

1.80

Pastoreo

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Fram ↓

Pastoreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Guaraní de Fram or draw

59%

Guaraní de Fram or Pastoreo

75%

Draw or Pastoreo

66%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+

15%

Pastoreo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals

75%

Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals

40%

Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals

16%

Pastoreo 1+ goals

78%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

45%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)

46%

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Fram at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Fram attack 1.47 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guaraní de Fram scores more

34%

level

25%

Pastoreo scores more

41%

Pastoreo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pastoreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

17'

24'

35'

45'

A. Giménez← E. Vogado

57'

62'

63'

64'

64'

A. Gimenez

71'

I. Morel← F. Viveros

71'

E. Quiñónez← A. Bareiro

82'

Rodrigo Raúl Ramírez← A. Morel

86'

L. Mendoza← J. Doria

90+5'

A. López

Guaraní

Pastoreo

30

Aquino

6

Mencia

33

Vera

36

⚽

López

19

⚽

Borja

14

▼

Vogado

7

⚽

17

10

29

23

▼

1

15

16

17

⚽

5

8

6

20

▼

Bareiro

11

▼

Viveros

9

▼

Herrera

7

⚽

Ojeda

Manager: G. Centurión

8'▲A. Morel←▼C. Herrera

71'▲I. Morel←▼F. Viveros

71'▲E. Quiñónez←▼A. Bareiro

82'▲Rodrigo Raúl Ramírez←▼A. Morel

Guaraní de Fram substitutes

2Morel4Morel19Quiñónez18Ramírez12Paredes13Ramírez14Parzajuk

Manager: C. Castro

45'▲A. Giménez←▼E. Vogado

62'▲J. Doria←▼K. Lezcano

86'▲L. Mendoza←▼J. Doria

Pastoreo substitutes

31Giménez39Doria40Mendoza12Báez25Benítez26Pérez28Martínez

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Fram 3–3 Pastoreo

Guaraní de Fram and Pastoreo drew 3-3 in Division Intermedia on April 21, 2025.

Goals: H. Ojeda (17'), A. Morel (24'), D. Benítez (35'), R. Borja (57'), D. Ferreira (63'), A. López (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.

Guaraní de Fram vs Pastoreo — Division Intermedia 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Fram 3–3 Pastoreo