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Passo Fundo vs Gaúcho — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Passo Fundo
Passo Fundo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gaúcho
Gaúcho
10/12/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Vermelhão da Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Passo Fundo42%
×Draw32%
Gaúcho26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Passo Fundo
1.05
Gaúcho
0.75

Passo Fundo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Passo Fundo
1.20
Gaúcho
1.10

allows per match

Passo Fundo
0.40
Gaúcho
0.90

finishing

Passo Fundo+0.00on par
Gaúcho+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Passo Fundo ↓

Gaúcho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Passo Fundo or draw
74%
Passo Fundo or Gaúcho
68%
Draw or Gaúcho
58%

Winning margin

Passo Fundo wins by 2+
17%
Gaúcho wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Passo Fundo 1+ goals
65%
Passo Fundo 2+ goals
28%
Passo Fundo 3+ goals
9%
Gaúcho 1+ goals
53%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
17%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Passo Fundo (draw refunded)
62%
Gaúcho (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Passo Fundo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Gaúcho away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Passo Fundo attack 1.20 + Gaúcho defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Gaúcho attack 1.10 + Passo Fundo defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Passo Fundo scores more
42%
level
32%
Gaúcho scores more
26%

Passo Fundo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Passo Fundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Passo Fundo 0–0 Gaúcho

Passo Fundo and Gaúcho drew 0-0 in Copa Gaúcha on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Vermelhão da Serra in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul.