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Gaúcho vs Passo Fundo — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Gaúcho
Gaúchoadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Passo Fundo
Passo Fundo
11/3/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · Play-offs - Semi-finalsBsbios Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gaúcho61%
×Draw23%
Passo Fundo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaúcho
1.80
Passo Fundo
0.80

Gaúcho creates 125% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gaúcho
1.60
Passo Fundo
1.00

allows per match

Gaúcho
0.60
Passo Fundo
2.00

finishing

Gaúcho+0.00on par
Passo Fundo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaúcho ↓

Passo Fundo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gaúcho or draw
84%
Gaúcho or Passo Fundo
77%
Draw or Passo Fundo
39%

Winning margin

Gaúcho wins by 2+
35%
Passo Fundo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gaúcho 1+ goals
83%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
54%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
27%
Passo Fundo 1+ goals
55%
Passo Fundo 2+ goals
19%
Passo Fundo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gaúcho (draw refunded)
79%
Passo Fundo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaúcho at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Passo Fundo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaúcho attack 1.60 + Passo Fundo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Passo Fundo attack 1.00 + Gaúcho defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gaúcho scores more
61%
level
23%
Passo Fundo scores more
16%

Gaúcho at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gaúcho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaúcho vs Passo Fundo

Gaúcho beat Passo Fundo 1-0 in Copa Gaúcha on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Bsbios Arena in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul.