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Pascoe Vale vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
1 – 2
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
8/16/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 25CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale26%
×Draw22%
Oakleigh Cannons52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.40
Oakleigh Cannons
2.04

Oakleigh Cannons creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.69
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
2.23
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
48%
Pascoe Vale or Oakleigh Cannons
78%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
74%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
11%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
75%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
41%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
17%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
87%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
60%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
34%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
26%
level
22%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
52%

Oakleigh Cannons at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Pascoe Vale 1–2 Oakleigh Cannons

Oakleigh Cannons beat Pascoe Vale 2-1 in Victoria NPL on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner).