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Oakleigh Cannons vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
1 – 0
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
5/12/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 12Jack Edwards Reserve (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons64%
×Draw20%
Pascoe Vale16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.15
Pascoe Vale
0.97

Oakleigh Cannons creates 122% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 13 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Pascoe Vale
0.85

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Pascoe Vale
1.85

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
84%
Oakleigh Cannons or Pascoe Vale
80%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
36%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
40%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
88%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
63%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
36%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
62%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
25%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
80%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.15

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
64%
level
20%
Pascoe Vale scores more
16%

Oakleigh Cannons at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oakleigh Cannons vs Pascoe Vale

Oakleigh Cannons beat Pascoe Vale 1-0 in Victoria NPL on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve (Melbourne).