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Pascoe Vale vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
1 – 2
Moreland City
Moreland City
8/12/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 21CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pascoe Vale50%
×Draw20%
Moreland City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
2.26
Moreland City
1.71

Pascoe Vale creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.90
Moreland City
1.80

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
1.61
Moreland City
2.63

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
70%
Pascoe Vale or Moreland City
80%
Draw or Moreland City
50%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
30%
Moreland City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
89%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
66%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
39%
Moreland City 1+ goals
82%
Moreland City 2+ goals
51%
Moreland City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
63%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.90 + Moreland City defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.26

Moreland City attack 1.80 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
50%
level
20%
Moreland City scores more
30%

Pascoe Vale at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Pascoe Vale 1–2 Moreland City

Moreland City beat Pascoe Vale 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.