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Moreland City vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland City
Moreland City
FT
0 – 1
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
6/19/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 12Campbell Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Moreland City41%
×Draw23%
Pascoe Vale36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland City
1.67
Pascoe Vale
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Moreland City
1.75
Pascoe Vale
1.74

allows per match

Moreland City
1.34
Pascoe Vale
1.58

finishing

Moreland City+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland City ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Moreland City or draw
64%
Moreland City or Pascoe Vale
77%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
59%

Winning margin

Moreland City wins by 2+
21%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Moreland City 1+ goals
81%
Moreland City 2+ goals
50%
Moreland City 3+ goals
23%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
79%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
45%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Moreland City (draw refunded)
54%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland City at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland City attack 1.75 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Moreland City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moreland City scores more
41%
level
23%
Pascoe Vale scores more
36%

Moreland City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moreland City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Moreland City 0–1 Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale beat Moreland City 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Campbell Reserve in Melbourne.