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Pascoe Vale vs Melbourne Knights — Victoria NPL 2026

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
1 – 3
Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
4/12/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 9CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale40%
×Draw22%
Melbourne Knights38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.82
Melbourne Knights
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.69
Melbourne Knights
1.29

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
2.23
Melbourne Knights
1.96

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Melbourne Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
62%
Pascoe Vale or Melbourne Knights
78%
Draw or Melbourne Knights
60%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
21%
Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
84%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
54%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
27%
Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
83%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
52%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
52%
Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.82

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
40%
level
22%
Melbourne Knights scores more
38%

Pascoe Vale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pascoe Vale vs Melbourne Knights

Melbourne Knights beat Pascoe Vale 3-1 in Victoria NPL on April 12, 2019.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner).