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Melbourne Knights vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
2 – 1
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
7/19/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 22Knights Stadium (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melbourne Knights50%
×Draw24%
Pascoe Vale26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.74
Pascoe Vale
1.18

Melbourne Knights creates 47% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 13 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
1.62
Pascoe Vale
0.85

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
1.51
Pascoe Vale
1.85

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
74%
Melbourne Knights or Pascoe Vale
76%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
50%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
27%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
52%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
25%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
69%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
33%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
66%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
50%
level
24%
Pascoe Vale scores more
26%

Melbourne Knights at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Melbourne Knights 2–1 Pascoe Vale

Melbourne Knights beat Pascoe Vale 2-1 in Victoria NPL on July 19, 2019.

The match was played at Knights Stadium (Melbourne).