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Pascoe Vale vs Heidelberg United — Victoria NPL 2026

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
1 – 3
Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
5/24/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 14CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale30%
×Draw22%
Heidelberg United48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.52
Heidelberg United
1.96

Heidelberg United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 88 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.69
Heidelberg United
1.68

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
2.23
Heidelberg United
1.36

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Heidelberg United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
52%
Pascoe Vale or Heidelberg United
78%
Draw or Heidelberg United
70%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
14%
Heidelberg United wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
78%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
45%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
20%
Heidelberg United 1+ goals
86%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
58%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
39%
Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Heidelberg United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Heidelberg United attack 1.68 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
30%
level
22%
Heidelberg United scores more
48%

Heidelberg United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pascoe Vale vs Heidelberg United

Heidelberg United beat Pascoe Vale 3-1 in Victoria NPL on May 24, 2019.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner).