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Heidelberg United vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2026

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
FT
1 – 1
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
2/14/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 1Olympic Park (Village) (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heidelberg United57%
×Draw23%
Pascoe Vale20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
1.83
Pascoe Vale
0.99

Heidelberg United creates 85% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 13 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
1.80
Pascoe Vale
0.85

allows per match

Heidelberg United
1.14
Pascoe Vale
1.85

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
80%
Heidelberg United or Pascoe Vale
77%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
43%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
33%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
84%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
54%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
28%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
63%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
26%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
74%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 1.80 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Heidelberg United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
57%
level
23%
Pascoe Vale scores more
20%

Heidelberg United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Heidelberg United 1–1 Pascoe Vale

Heidelberg United and Pascoe Vale drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL on February 14, 2019.

The match was played at Olympic Park (Village) (Melbourne).