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Pascoe Vale vs Dandenong Thunder — Victoria NPL 2026

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
1 – 1
Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
5/3/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 11CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale38%
×Draw22%
Dandenong Thunder40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.76
Dandenong Thunder
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.69
Dandenong Thunder
1.44

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
2.23
Dandenong Thunder
1.83

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Dandenong Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
60%
Pascoe Vale or Dandenong Thunder
78%
Draw or Dandenong Thunder
62%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
19%
Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
83%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
52%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
26%
Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
84%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
54%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
48%
Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.44 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
38%
level
22%
Dandenong Thunder scores more
40%

Dandenong Thunder at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pascoe Vale vs Dandenong Thunder

Pascoe Vale and Dandenong Thunder drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL on May 3, 2019.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner).