Dandenong Thunder 2–1 Pascoe Vale: Result & Stats

Dandenong Thunder

FT

2 – 1

Pascoe Vale

8/3/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 24George Andrews Reserve (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong Thunder50%

×Draw23%

Pascoe Vale27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandenong ThunderExpected goals in this matchPascoe Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.29

Dandenong Thunder

1.81

Pascoe Vale

1.29

Dandenong Thunder creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

1.76

creates per match

0.85

1.74

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.76

Pascoe Vale

0.85

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder

1.74

Pascoe Vale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

Pascoe Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw

73%

Dandenong Thunder or Pascoe Vale

77%

Draw or Pascoe Vale

50%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+

27%

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals

84%

Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals

54%

Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals

27%

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

72%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

37%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)

64%

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more

50%

level

23%

Pascoe Vale scores more

27%

Dandenong Thunder at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff