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Pasaia KE vs Eibar III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eibar III
Eibar III
2/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pasaia KE40%
×Draw26%
Eibar III33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.36
Eibar III
1.22

Pasaia KE creates 11% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Eibar III
1.12

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Eibar III
1.79

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Eibar III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Eibar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
67%
Pasaia KE or Eibar III
74%
Draw or Eibar III
60%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
18%
Eibar III wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
74%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
39%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
16%
Eibar III 1+ goals
70%
Eibar III 2+ goals
34%
Eibar III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
54%
Eibar III (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Eibar III away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Eibar III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Eibar III attack 1.12 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
40%
level
26%
Eibar III scores more
33%

Pasaia KE at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pasaia KE vs Eibar III

Pasaia KE and Eibar III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora in Errenteria.