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Eibar III vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Eibar III
Eibar III
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
9/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eibar III45%
×Draw26%
Pasaia KE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar III
1.46
Pasaia KE
1.13

Eibar III creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Eibar III
1.53
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Eibar III
1.26
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Eibar III+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar III ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Eibar III or draw
71%
Eibar III or Pasaia KE
74%
Draw or Pasaia KE
55%

Winning margin

Eibar III wins by 2+
22%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eibar III 1+ goals
77%
Eibar III 2+ goals
43%
Eibar III 3+ goals
18%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
68%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
31%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eibar III (draw refunded)
60%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar III at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar III attack 1.53 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Eibar III defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eibar III scores more
45%
level
26%
Pasaia KE scores more
29%

Eibar III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eibar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eibar III vs Pasaia KE

Eibar III and Pasaia KE drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior in Eibar.