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Pasaia KE vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
4/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pasaia KE37%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés III35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.17
Deportivo Alavés III
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
65%
Pasaia KE or Deportivo Alavés III
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
63%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
69%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
33%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
37%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
35%

Pasaia KE at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pasaia KE 1 – 0 Deportivo Alavés III

Pasaia KE beat Deportivo Alavés III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora in Errenteria.