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Deportivo Alavés III vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III49%
×Draw26%
Pasaia KE25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés III
1.51
Pasaia KE
1.00

Deportivo Alavés III creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.65
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.00
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw
75%
Deportivo Alavés III or Pasaia KE
74%
Draw or Pasaia KE
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
25%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
19%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
63%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
26%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
66%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more
49%
level
26%
Pasaia KE scores more
25%

Deportivo Alavés III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Alavés III 4 – 1 Pasaia KE

Deportivo Alavés III beat Pasaia KE 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4 in Vitoria-Gasteiz.