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Pasaia KE vs Beasain — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Beasain
Beasain
11/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Campo Beraun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Pasaia KE29%
×Draw29%
Beasain42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
0.98
Beasain
1.25

Beasain creates 28% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 80 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Beasain
1.20

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Beasain
1.02

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Beasain+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Beasain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
58%
Pasaia KE or Beasain
71%
Draw or Beasain
71%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
11%
Beasain wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
62%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
26%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
8%
Beasain 1+ goals
71%
Beasain 2+ goals
36%
Beasain 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
41%
Beasain (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Beasain away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Beasain defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Beasain attack 1.20 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
29%
level
29%
Beasain scores more
42%

Beasain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pasaia KE vs Beasain

Pasaia KE beat Beasain 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Beraun in Errenteria.