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Beasain vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beasain
Beasain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Beasain50%
×Draw26%
Pasaia KE24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beasain
1.51
Pasaia KE
0.97

Beasain creates 56% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 111 away

creates per match

Beasain
1.65
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Beasain
0.95
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beasain or draw
76%
Beasain or Pasaia KE
74%
Draw or Pasaia KE
50%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+
25%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals
78%
Beasain 2+ goals
44%
Beasain 3+ goals
19%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
62%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
25%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)
67%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beasain scores more
50%
level
26%
Pasaia KE scores more
24%

Beasain at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Beasain 1–0 Pasaia KE

Beasain beat Pasaia KE 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estado Municipal de Loinaz in Beasain.