Pasaia KE 0–1 Amurrio Club: Result & Stats

Pasaia KE

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Amurrio Club

12/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pasaia KE37%

×Draw29%

Amurrio Club34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pasaia KEExpected goals in this matchAmurrio Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.07

Pasaia KE

1.13

Amurrio Club

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

0.93

creates per match

0.84

1.31

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Pasaia KE

0.93

Amurrio Club

0.84

allows per match

Pasaia KE

1.31

Amurrio Club

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Amurrio Club →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw

66%

Pasaia KE or Amurrio Club

71%

Draw or Amurrio Club

63%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

15%

Amurrio Club wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

68%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

31%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

11%

Amurrio Club 1+ goals

66%

Amurrio Club 2+ goals

29%

Amurrio Club 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

52%

Amurrio Club (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Amurrio Club away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Amurrio Club defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Amurrio Club attack 0.84 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pasaia KE scores more

37%

level

29%

Amurrio Club scores more

34%

Pasaia KE at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 0–1 Amurrio Club

Amurrio Club beat Pasaia KE 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Don Bosco in Pasajes-Pasaia.

Pasaia KE vs Amurrio Club — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 0–1 Amurrio Club