Amurrio Club 1–2 Pasaia KE: Result & Stats

Amurrio Club

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pasaia KE

4/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 37Estadio Basarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amurrio Club43%

×Draw28%

Pasaia KE29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amurrio ClubExpected goals in this matchPasaia KE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Amurrio Club

1.29

Pasaia KE

1.02

Amurrio Club creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Amurrio Club

1.21

Pasaia KE

1.00

allows per match

Amurrio Club

1.05

Pasaia KE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amurrio Club ↓

Pasaia KE →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Amurrio Club or draw

71%

Amurrio Club or Pasaia KE

72%

Draw or Pasaia KE

57%

Winning margin

Amurrio Club wins by 2+

19%

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amurrio Club 1+ goals

72%

Amurrio Club 2+ goals

37%

Amurrio Club 3+ goals

14%

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

64%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

27%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Amurrio Club (draw refunded)

59%

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Amurrio Club at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Amurrio Club attack 1.21 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Amurrio Club defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Amurrio Club scores more

43%

level

28%

Pasaia KE scores more

29%

Amurrio Club at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amurrio Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Amurrio Club 1–2 Pasaia KE

Pasaia KE beat Amurrio Club 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Basarte in Amurrio.

Amurrio Club vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Amurrio Club 1–2 Pasaia KE