PAS Giannina vs Xanthi FC — Super League 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
PAS Giannina43%
Xanthi FC27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
PAS Giannina creates 35% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
PAS Giannina ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 89 matches
Xanthi FC away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Xanthi FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16
Xanthi FC attack 0.56 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.86
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
PAS Giannina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
PAS Giannina substitutes
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shots
Statistics
PAS Giannina host Xanthi FC on Saturday, 2 March 2019 at 17:30. The match is part of the Super League 1 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: PAS Giannina vs Xanthi FC
PAS Giannina and Xanthi FC drew 0-0 in Super League 1 on March 2, 2019.
The match was played at Zosimades National Stadium in Ioannina.