PAS Giannina 1–1 Xanthi FC: Result & Stats

PAS Giannina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Xanthi FC

4/1/2017

Super League 1 · Round 26Zosimades National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

PAS Giannina41%

×Draw30%

Xanthi FC29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAS GianninaExpected goals in this matchXanthi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.92

PAS Giannina

1.15

Xanthi FC

0.92

PAS Giannina creates 25% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 41 away

0.90

creates per match

0.66

1.17

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

PAS Giannina

0.90

Xanthi FC

0.66

allows per match

PAS Giannina

1.17

Xanthi FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Xanthi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Xanthi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw

71%

PAS Giannina or Xanthi FC

70%

Draw or Xanthi FC

59%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

17%

Xanthi FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

68%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

32%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

11%

Xanthi FC 1+ goals

60%

Xanthi FC 2+ goals

23%

Xanthi FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

58%

Xanthi FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 96 matches

Xanthi FC away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.90 + Xanthi FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Xanthi FC attack 0.66 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PAS Giannina scores more

41%

level

30%

Xanthi FC scores more

29%

PAS Giannina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff