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PAS Giannina vs Panionios — Super League 1 2018

PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Panionios
Panionios
E. Giakos 88' (pen), 83'
A. Nikolias 51'
F. Durmishaj 82'
12/15/2018Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 14Zosimades National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

PAS Giannina47%
×Draw28%
Panionios25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAS Giannina
1.36
Panionios
0.91

PAS Giannina creates 49% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 39 away

creates per match

PAS Giannina
0.88
Panionios
0.64

allows per match

PAS Giannina
1.17
Panionios
1.85

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par
Panionios+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Panionios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw
75%
PAS Giannina or Panionios
72%
Draw or Panionios
53%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+
22%
Panionios wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals
74%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
39%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
16%
Panionios 1+ goals
60%
Panionios 2+ goals
23%
Panionios 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
65%
Panionios (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 89 matches

Panionios away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.85 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Panionios defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Panionios attack 0.64 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PAS Giannina scores more
47%
level
28%
Panionios scores more
25%

PAS Giannina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Athanasios Papageorgiou
51'
A. Nikolias↳ S. Athanasiadis
54'
Sandi Križman
67'
S. Siontis← A. Lila
71'
Stefanos Siontis
74'
Sotiris Tsiloulis
76'
S. Sidi Ali← S. Spiridonović
80'
R. Alberg← T. Papageorgiou
82'
F. Durmishaj↳ G. Masouras
83'
E. Giakos↳ M. Boukouvalas
85'
I. Oikonomidis← S. Tsiloulis
86'
Stefanos Athanasiadis
88'
E. GiakosPenalty
89'
A. Skondras← E. Giakos
90+2'
Higor Vidal← G. Pamlidis

Possession

58%PAS

Shots

9PAS

Statistics

PASPanionios
Overview
58%Possession42%
9Total Shots5
1Corners2
16Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots5
4On Target3
5Off Target2
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: PAS Giannina vs Panionios

PAS Giannina beat Panionios 3-1 in Super League 1 on December 15, 2018.

Goals: A. Nikolias (51'), F. Durmishaj (82'), E. Giakos (83', 88' pen).

PAS Giannina controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 5.

The match was played at Zosimades National Stadium in Ioannina.