Panionios 0–1 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

Panionios

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PAS Giannina

1/28/2018

Super League 1 · Round 19Stadio Néas Smírnis (Athína (Athens))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Panionios45%

×Draw30%

PAS Giannina26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanioniosExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.83

Panionios

1.20

PAS Giannina

0.83

Panionios creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 97 away

0.92

creates per match

0.88

0.79

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Panionios

0.92

PAS Giannina

0.88

allows per match

Panionios

0.79

PAS Giannina

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panionios+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panionios ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Panionios or draw

74%

Panionios or PAS Giannina

70%

Draw or PAS Giannina

55%

Winning margin

Panionios wins by 2+

20%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Panionios 1+ goals

70%

Panionios 2+ goals

34%

Panionios 3+ goals

12%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

56%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

20%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Panionios (draw refunded)

64%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panionios at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 38 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.48 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panionios attack 0.92 + PAS Giannina defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Panionios defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Panionios scores more

45%

level

30%

PAS Giannina scores more

26%

Panionios at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Panionios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff