PAS Giannina 1–2 Larisa: Result & Stats

PAS Giannina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Larisa

J. Leo 61'

D. Pinakas 85', 66'

11/4/2020

Super League 1 · Round 2Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

PAS Giannina41%

×Draw29%

Larisa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAS GianninaExpected goals in this matchLarisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.97

PAS Giannina

1.20

Larisa

0.97

PAS Giannina creates 24% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 66 away

0.88

creates per match

0.77

1.17

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

PAS Giannina

0.88

Larisa

0.77

allows per match

PAS Giannina

1.17

Larisa

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Larisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Larisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw

70%

PAS Giannina or Larisa

71%

Draw or Larisa

59%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

18%

Larisa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

70%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

34%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

12%

Larisa 1+ goals

62%

Larisa 2+ goals

25%

Larisa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

58%

Larisa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 89 matches

Larisa away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Larisa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Larisa attack 0.77 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PAS Giannina scores more

41%

level

29%

Larisa scores more

30%

PAS Giannina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Alexandros Lolis

26'

Vangelis Platellas

46'

S. Siontis← C. Eleftheriadis

55'

Alexandros Lolis

55'

Alexandros Lolis

61'

J. Leo↳ E. Choutesiotis

62'

A. Kartalis← G. Pamlidis

64'

F. Durmishaj← A. Michail

66'

D. Pinakas↳ S. Filip

68'

G. Torje← A. Nikolias

68'

O. Grigoropoulos← M. Bertos

74'

S. Križman← J. Leo

74'

A. Liasos← Juan Domínguez

78'

Gabriel Torje

78'

I. Kosti← T. Sparv

79'

H. Younès← V. Platelas

80'

85'

86'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PASLarisa

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots6

0Corners5

15Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots6

3On Target5

4Off Target1

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2