Larisa 2–0 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

Larisa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

PAS Giannina

A. Colombino 39'

M. Acuña 23'

5/15/2021

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 7Stadio Alkazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Larisa42%

×Draw28%

PAS Giannina30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LarisaExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.03

Larisa

1.26

PAS Giannina

1.03

Larisa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 90 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.20

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Larisa

1.00

PAS Giannina

0.86

allows per match

Larisa

1.20

PAS Giannina

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larisa+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larisa ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Larisa or draw

70%

Larisa or PAS Giannina

72%

Draw or PAS Giannina

58%

Winning margin

Larisa wins by 2+

19%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Larisa 1+ goals

72%

Larisa 2+ goals

36%

Larisa 3+ goals

13%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

64%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

28%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Larisa (draw refunded)

58%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larisa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.52 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larisa attack 1.00 + PAS Giannina defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

PAS Giannina attack 0.86 + Larisa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Larisa scores more

42%

level

28%

PAS Giannina scores more

30%

Larisa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Larisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Manolis Bertos

9'

Edwin Castro

23'

M. Acuña↳ A. Colombino

27'

Epameinondas Pantelakis

39'

A. Colombino↳ M. Bertos

53'

Maksim Maksymenko

63'

Mathías Acuña

64'

G. Maidanos← N. Jakimovski

65'

C. Eleftheriadis← S. Pilios

73'

Giannis Kargas

75'

P. Grosdanis← P. Panourgias

78'

F. Durmishaj← D. Pinakas

83'

A. Triadis← A. Lolis

90'

A. Chalatsis← O. Grigoropoulos

90'

G. Daktylas← M. Acuña

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LarisaPAS

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots12

4Corners8

20Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots12

4On Target4

3Off Target8

Passing

38%Possession62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2