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PAS Giannina vs Atromitos — Super League 1 2018

PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atromitos
Atromitos
3/3/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 26Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

PAS Giannina37%
×Draw28%
Atromitos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAS Giannina
1.16
Atromitos
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 130 away

creates per match

PAS Giannina
0.89
Atromitos
1.08

allows per match

PAS Giannina
1.17
Atromitos
1.42

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par
Atromitos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Atromitos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw
65%
PAS Giannina or Atromitos
72%
Draw or Atromitos
63%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+
15%
Atromitos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals
69%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
32%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
11%
Atromitos 1+ goals
68%
Atromitos 2+ goals
31%
Atromitos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
51%
Atromitos (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Atromitos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.89 + Atromitos defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atromitos attack 1.08 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PAS Giannina scores more
37%
level
28%
Atromitos scores more
35%

PAS Giannina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PAS Giannina vs Atromitos

PAS Giannina and Atromitos drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Zosimades in Ioannina.