Atromitos 1–1 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

Atromitos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PAS Giannina

12/3/2023

Super League 1 · Round 13Stadio Peristeriou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Atromitos46%

×Draw27%

PAS Giannina27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtromitosExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.00

Atromitos

1.41

PAS Giannina

1.00

Atromitos creates 41% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 83 away

1.23

creates per match

0.88

1.11

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Atromitos

1.23

PAS Giannina

0.88

allows per match

Atromitos

1.11

PAS Giannina

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atromitos+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atromitos ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atromitos or draw

73%

Atromitos or PAS Giannina

73%

Draw or PAS Giannina

54%

Winning margin

Atromitos wins by 2+

22%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atromitos 1+ goals

76%

Atromitos 2+ goals

41%

Atromitos 3+ goals

17%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

63%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

26%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atromitos (draw refunded)

63%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atromitos at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atromitos attack 1.23 + PAS Giannina defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Atromitos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atromitos scores more

46%

level

27%

PAS Giannina scores more

27%

Atromitos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atromitos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff