Pas de la Casa 1–2 Atlètic Amèrica: Result & Stats

Pas de la Casa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atlètic Amèrica

1/21/2024

1a Divisió · Round 13Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pas de la Casa58%

×Draw20%

Atlètic Amèrica21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pas de la CasaExpected goals in this matchAtlètic Amèrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.27

Pas de la Casa

2.21

Atlètic Amèrica

1.27

Pas de la Casa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

1.90

allows per match

3.43

creates per match

Pas de la Casa

1.00

Atlètic Amèrica

0.64

allows per match

Pas de la Casa

1.90

Atlètic Amèrica

3.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pas de la Casa+0.00on par

Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pas de la Casa ↓

Atlètic Amèrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pas de la Casa or draw

79%

Pas de la Casa or Atlètic Amèrica

80%

Draw or Atlètic Amèrica

42%

Winning margin

Pas de la Casa wins by 2+

36%

Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pas de la Casa 1+ goals

89%

Pas de la Casa 2+ goals

65%

Pas de la Casa 3+ goals

38%

Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals

72%

Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals

36%

Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pas de la Casa (draw refunded)

73%

Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pas de la Casa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

Atlètic Amèrica away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pas de la Casa attack 1.00 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Atlètic Amèrica attack 0.64 + Pas de la Casa defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pas de la Casa scores more

58%

level

20%

Atlètic Amèrica scores more

21%

Pas de la Casa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pas de la Casa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff