Atlètic Amèrica 1–3 Pas de la Casa: Result & Stats

Atlètic Amèrica

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Pas de la Casa

10/21/2023

1a Divisió · Round 5Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atlètic Amèrica17%

×Draw20%

Pas de la Casa63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlètic AmèricaExpected goals in this matchPas de la Casa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.13

Atlètic Amèrica

1.02

Pas de la Casa

2.13

Pas de la Casa creates 109% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

1.12

3.15

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Atlètic Amèrica

1.00

Pas de la Casa

1.12

allows per match

Atlètic Amèrica

3.15

Pas de la Casa

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par

Pas de la Casa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlètic Amèrica ↓

Pas de la Casa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Atlètic Amèrica or draw

37%

Atlètic Amèrica or Pas de la Casa

80%

Draw or Pas de la Casa

83%

Winning margin

Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+

6%

Pas de la Casa wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals

64%

Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals

27%

Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals

8%

Pas de la Casa 1+ goals

88%

Pas de la Casa 2+ goals

63%

Pas de la Casa 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)

22%

Pas de la Casa (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlètic Amèrica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Pas de la Casa away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlètic Amèrica attack 1.00 + Pas de la Casa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Pas de la Casa attack 1.12 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlètic Amèrica scores more

17%

level

20%

Pas de la Casa scores more

63%

Pas de la Casa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Pas de la Casa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff