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Parva atomna vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Parva atomna
Parva atomna
CANC
00:00
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
3/8/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 14Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Parva atomna42%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parva atomna
1.60
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.39

Parva atomna creates 15% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 106 away

creates per match

Parva atomna
1.57
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Parva atomna
1.41
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw
67%
Parva atomna or Lokomotiv Mezdra
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
58%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals
80%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
47%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)
56%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Parva atomna scores more
42%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
33%

Parva atomna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parva atomna vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Match Preview

Parva atomna face Lokomotiv Mezdra on March 8, 2020 in this Third League - Northwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Parva atomna host Lokomotiv Mezdra at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.