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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
FT
2 – 2
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
10/30/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 13Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra67%
×Draw18%
Parva atomna14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.31
Parva atomna
0.96

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 141% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 47 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.06
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.06
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw
86%
Lokomotiv Mezdra or Parva atomna
82%
Draw or Parva atomna
33%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
44%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
90%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
67%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
40%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
62%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
25%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
82%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.31

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
67%
level
18%
Parva atomna scores more
14%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Parva atomna

Lokomotiv Mezdra and Parva atomna drew 2-2 in Third League - Northwest on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Mezdra.