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Parva atomna vs Kom Berkovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Parva atomna
Parva atomna
CANC
00:00
Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
4/26/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 21Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Parva atomna49%
×Draw24%
Kom Berkovitsa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parva atomna
1.70
Kom Berkovitsa
1.19

Parva atomna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

creates per match

Parva atomna
1.57
Kom Berkovitsa
0.98

allows per match

Parva atomna
1.41
Kom Berkovitsa
1.82

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par
Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Kom Berkovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw
73%
Parva atomna or Kom Berkovitsa
76%
Draw or Kom Berkovitsa
51%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+
26%
Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals
82%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
51%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
24%
Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
70%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
33%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)
65%
Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Kom Berkovitsa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kom Berkovitsa attack 0.98 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Parva atomna scores more
49%
level
24%
Kom Berkovitsa scores more
27%

Parva atomna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Parva atomna host Kom Berkovitsa

April 26, 2020: Parva atomna take on Kom Berkovitsa in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Parva atomna host Kom Berkovitsa at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.