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Kom Berkovitsa vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
FT
2 – 1
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
9/9/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 5Stadion Mramor (Berkovitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kom Berkovitsa69%
×Draw18%
Parva atomna13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom Berkovitsa
2.32
Parva atomna
0.90

Kom Berkovitsa creates 158% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kom Berkovitsa
2.07
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Kom Berkovitsa
0.95
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom Berkovitsa ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kom Berkovitsa or draw
87%
Kom Berkovitsa or Parva atomna
82%
Draw or Parva atomna
31%

Winning margin

Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
46%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
90%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
67%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
40%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
59%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
23%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
84%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom Berkovitsa at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom Berkovitsa attack 2.07 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.32

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kom Berkovitsa scores more
69%
level
18%
Parva atomna scores more
13%

Kom Berkovitsa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kom Berkovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kom Berkovitsa vs Parva atomna

Kom Berkovitsa beat Parva atomna 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mramor (Berkovitsa).