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Parva atomna vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Parva atomna
Parva atomna
FT
2 – 4
Drenovets
Drenovets
9/13/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 6Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Parva atomna60%
×Draw21%
Drenovets19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parva atomna
2.06
Drenovets
1.08

Parva atomna creates 91% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

creates per match

Parva atomna
1.57
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Parva atomna
1.41
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw
81%
Parva atomna or Drenovets
79%
Draw or Drenovets
40%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+
36%
Drenovets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals
87%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
61%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
34%
Drenovets 1+ goals
66%
Drenovets 2+ goals
29%
Drenovets 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)
76%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.06

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Parva atomna scores more
60%
level
21%
Drenovets scores more
19%

Parva atomna at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Parva atomna 2–4 Drenovets

Drenovets beat Parva atomna 4-2 in Third League - Northwest on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Kozloduy.