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Drenovets vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
3 – 0
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
8/25/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 3Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Drenovets60%
×Draw20%
Parva atomna20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
2.26
Parva atomna
1.23

Drenovets creates 84% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 47 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
80%
Drenovets or Parva atomna
80%
Draw or Parva atomna
40%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
38%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
89%
Drenovets 2+ goals
66%
Drenovets 3+ goals
39%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
71%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
35%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
75%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.26

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Drenovets scores more
60%
level
20%
Parva atomna scores more
20%

Drenovets at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Drenovets 3 – 0 Parva atomna

Drenovets beat Parva atomna 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.