Parva atomna 5–0 Botev Lukovit: Result & Stats

Parva atomna

FT

5 – 0

Botev Lukovit

6/2/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 30Stadion Hristo Botev (Kozloduy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Parva atomna52%

×Draw24%

Botev Lukovit24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parva atomnaExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.10

Parva atomna

1.75

Botev Lukovit

1.10

Parva atomna creates 59% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.57

creates per match

0.80

1.41

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Parva atomna

1.57

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

Parva atomna

1.41

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw

76%

Parva atomna or Botev Lukovit

76%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

48%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+

29%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals

83%

Parva atomna 2+ goals

52%

Parva atomna 3+ goals

25%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

67%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

30%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)

69%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Parva atomna scores more

52%

level

24%

Botev Lukovit scores more

24%

Parva atomna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff