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Botev Lukovit vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Lukovit
Botev Lukovit
FT
2 – 1
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
11/11/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 15Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botev Lukovit68%
×Draw19%
Parva atomna13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Lukovit
2.22
Parva atomna
0.86

Botev Lukovit creates 158% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 47 away

creates per match

Botev Lukovit
1.87
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Botev Lukovit
0.87
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Lukovit ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Botev Lukovit or draw
87%
Botev Lukovit or Parva atomna
81%
Draw or Parva atomna
32%

Winning margin

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+
44%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals
89%
Botev Lukovit 2+ goals
65%
Botev Lukovit 3+ goals
38%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
58%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
21%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)
84%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Lukovit at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Lukovit attack 1.87 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.22

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Botev Lukovit defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Botev Lukovit scores more
68%
level
19%
Parva atomna scores more
13%

Botev Lukovit at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Botev Lukovit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botev Lukovit 2 – 1 Parva atomna

Botev Lukovit beat Parva atomna 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit).